Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands, 17th February 2026 - The Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) is pleased to announce that S&P Global Ratings has affirmed the Territory’s sovereign credit rating at A-/Stable/A-2 for both foreign and local currency. The stable outlook reflects balanced risks over the next 24 months and recognizes TCI’s strong institutions, sustained economic growth, and robust fiscal performance.
Strong Growth Underpinned by Tourism and Construction
S&P projects that TCI’s real GDP growth will moderate from recent record highs but remain strong, averaging approximately 4% annually over the next three years. GDP per capita is forecast to reach US$36,400 in 2026, maintaining TCI’s position among the highest in the region.
The ratings agency notes that tourism continues to be the primary driver of economic activity—accounting indirectly for about 65% of GDP—supported by sustained demand from the United States, the Territory’s proximity to key markets, and a resilient second-home sector. Construction and real estate development, along with major infrastructure initiatives such as the redevelopment of the Howard Hamilton International Airport and the South Dock project in Providenciales, are also expected to support continued growth.
While highlighting the economy’s concentration in tourism and exposure to external shocks and weather-related events, S&P recognized that TCI’s affluent visitor base and strong fiscal buffers provide important insulation against volatility.
Sustained Fiscal Surpluses and Strong Net Asset Position
The report underscores TCI’s exceptionally strong public finances, including:
- Very low government debt, with the Territory maintaining a net asset position;
- Cash reserves of approximately US$430 million (23% of GDP) as of June 30, 2025;
- A projected net asset position averaging 52% of GDP from 2026–2029; and
- Interest payments expected to remain well below 5% of revenues.
S&P cited the Government’s long-standing commitment to prudent fiscal management, conservative budgeting practices, and disciplined savings accumulation—including the National Wealth Fund—as key pillars of resilience.
Institutional Stability and UK Relationship Support Creditworthiness
The ratings affirmation reflects S&P’s positive assessment of TCI’s institutional framework and governance. The agency highlighted the Territory’s track record of prudent policymaking and stable political environment.
As a self-governing territory of the United Kingdom, TCI benefits from a constructive and stable institutional relationship with the U.K., which S&P considers a supportive factor for creditworthiness. The report notes that this relationship reinforces policy stability, governance standards, and the rule of law.
Fiscal Strength Offsets Monetary Constraints
S&P observed that TCI’s full dollarization and absence of a central bank limit monetary policy flexibility. However, the Government’s strong fiscal position, substantial liquid assets, and history of sound financial management provide an effective counterbalance to these structural constraints.
Outlook
The Stable Outlook reflects S&P’s view that strong economic performance and institutional stability will continue to support asset accumulation, helping to mitigate risks associated with TCI’s small, open, and tourism-dependent economy.
An upgrade could occur if per capita growth significantly exceeds expectations and is sustained over several years. Conversely, a downgrade could result from a severe external shock that materially weakens the economy or from any deterioration in institutional ties that undermines governance.
Comment from Premier: “TCIG has for the last 13 years received improvements in its credit rating with the current rating remaining strong with a positive outlook for the next 3 years. The Government remains committed to the highest standard of Public Finance Management, risk management and the principles of resilience”